Costing a UK Power Source Conversion to Solar Energy.

Some Source Statistics,

total energy – combining electricity, transport and heat, UK 2021, 2000 TWh, https://ourworldindata.org/energy/country/united-kingdom

Electricity Generation Only, UK 2021, 300 TWh, https://ourworldindata.org/energy/country/united-kingdom

Solar Panel Cost UK 2023, System Size 7KW, Costs £8,900, Actual Energy Generated, 4,945 KWh. https://www.fmb.org.uk/homepicks/solar-panels/best-solar-panels/

So Replacement to Solar for Grid Electric, Energy Energy is, Capital Cost is.

Solar, Grid Only, Capital Cost = £8,900 * 300* 10^12 Wh / (4,954 * 10^3 Wh) = 539 Billion Pounds.

All Energy Capital Cost = £8,900 * 2000 * 10^12 Wh /(4,954 * 10^3 Wh) = 3.6 Trillion Pounds.

However Some of both the Electricity Grid and the UK Total Energy is already non fossil fuel.

UK 2021Grid %35 Fossil, https://energyguide.org.uk/electricity-generati

UK 2020 Total energy usage, 78% fossil. https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/environmentalaccounts/bulletins/ukenvironmentalaccounts/2022

So the Cost for the Solar Cells is reduced to. Solar, Grid Only, Capital Cost = £8,900 * 300* 10^12 Wh / (4,954 * 10^3 Wh)* 0.35 = 189 Billion Pounds.

All Energy Capital Cost = £8,900 * 2000 * 10^12 Wh /(4,954 * 10^3 Wh) * 0.78 = 2.8 Trillion Pounds.

There is additional cost from Storage from day to night. We need to know the energy usage per jour and the received solar energy and calculate the percentage of the total solar energy that needed to be stored.

https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/ Shows that the Night Minimum Electricity usage versus peak of the day is about 19/28, or aprox 2/3s.

We will then need storage of, 2/3 * 300 TWh * 1/2 * .35 = 35 TWh for the grid.

And Also, 2/3 * 2000 * 1/2 * 0.78 = 520 TWh for the total UK energy.

For Energy Storage we will estimate the cost, using the price of the current Telsa Powerwall 2, which has a Capacity of 13.5 KWh and a price (including installing) of £6,700 to £8700, using the low end price.

Grid Storage Costs is £6,700 * 35 TWh / 13.5 KWh = 17 Trillion Pounds.

Total Energy Storage is £6,700 * 520 TWh / 13.5 KWh = 250 Trillion Pounds.

By Comparison the Current (April 2023), UK Gov Debt is 2.35 Trillion Pounds, and the cost of servicing it is 83 Billion pounds,

https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/3028/economics/interest-payments-on-uk-debt/ , if we where to not to use storage, then the grid could be converted to Solar, with little economic change, but converting all UK fossil fuels to Solar, would be double the national debt, and doubling the debt servicing charge the government pays, the would then be 5% Tax increase across all UK Taxes.

Converting just the Grid using using Telsa Storage, would add 7.2 times the UK GDP to the debt, increasing debt servicing to 35% of Government Tax revenue, so resulting in a 35% Tax increase across all UK Taxes.

Converting all UK Fossil Fuels to Solar using Telsa Storage, would be impossibly expessive, increasing UK Gov Debt by 107 times, and resulting in an annual debt servicing bill, 3.77 times the UK annual GDP.

Solar Cells have a 15-25 year lifespan, and while Telsa Powerwalls have a ten year waranty, we can assume a 15 year life span. So the capital cost for solar cells and storage would need to be repeated every 15 years.

Currently it is the cost of the storage that destroys any plan of using Solar energy to replace all fossil fuels in the UK. Battery Storage technology is current to expensive by a factor of a hundred, Lithium for Batteries is not likely reduce in price much as it is already in heavy demand, until cheaper grid scale batteries can be developed, solar with battery energy storage is not a fessible solution for all UK energy.

What about pumped hydroelectic storage, https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/pumped-hydro-moves-to-retain-storage-market-leadership gives a cost of $106 - $ 200 per kilowatt hour, so at current pound to dollar rate of £1 = $1.25, hydroelectric is £84 - £160 per KWh.

Then the capital cost for storage is (using the £84 figure),

Grid Storage is = 35 * 10^9 KWh * £84 per KWh = 2.95 Trillion pounds.

Storage to replace all UK Fossil Fuel = 520 * 10^9 KWh * £ 84 per KWh = 43.6 Trilliion Pounds.

So all UK fossil fuels to be replaced with Solar Panels and having Hydroelectric power storage costs 46.4 Trillion, about 20 times UK Annual GDP, with new government debt servicing to around 100% of current UK Government Tax Income. Since Government Tax Income is already half of UK GDP. Complete conversion of UK fossil fuels to Solar Panels with Hydroelectric power storage would require the entire rest of the UK economy to go into the green energy plan.